Back on the road for another critical Sun Belt Conference series, Appalachian State looks to tame power-hitting Georgia State in the Panthers' pinball machine ballpark.
GSU's scoring average is around 25 percent higher at home and home runs increase by about 30 percent per game, so not coincidentally it's taken double-digit scoring to beat the Panthers in eight of their nine home defeats.
The only conference team scoring more runs in Sun Belt play than Georgia State is App State, which has recorded double digits in four straight games without a loss.
GEORGIA STATE PANTHERS
Georgia State's hitting lineup is very balanced, with eight Panthers averaging .270 or better and homers are spread between 6-9 over seven different bats. There's nowhere in that order for a pitcher to catch his breath.
Third baseman Will Mize paces the Panthers with a .353 average, nine home runs, and 40 RBI, followed closely by outfielder Michael Maginnis at .339 plus nine homers and 18 stolen bases, and catcher Brennan Hudson, hitting .333 and slugging .655.
Shortstop Maximus Martin hits .305 and is the only Panther regular without a home run, but Luke Boynton (8), Jesse Donohoe (6), and Ryan Dyal (9) all hit the long ball. Throw in Matt Ruiz at .277 and with 15 doubles and GSU is one of the top offensive teams in DI.
Georgia State has been chasing its weekend pitching rotation for most of the season. Five different Panthers have started at least five games and 11 arms have started a game sometime this season. But the one steady performer has been game two starter Rob Evans, a lefty who's 3-2 with a 5.89 ERA.
Evans will be flanked by righthanders Kameron Douglas, who's starting his first game on Friday, and 2-1 Sam Schofield in the finale. The goal is to give the game to lefthanded closer Rob Evans, who's 4-0 with two saves, but there's a lot of scrambling that takes place in between. Overall, 13 different arms have thrown at least 10 innings this season.
To say winning games is about scoring is overly simplistic but there are some definitive trends around scoring for GSU. The Panthers are 12-2 when they score at least 10 runs, which is predictable, but the games have changed when scoring drops below double digits. Specifically, Georgia State is 5-7 between 6-9 runs and 4-10 at five runs or fewer,
Of course, the trick is limiting Panther scoring, because they score 10-plus in better than one-third of their total games. As noted, Georgia State is even tougher at home. It didn't start that way, with GSU scoring in double-figures only twice in the first 10 home games, but that number has grown to six of the past 11.
APP STATE MOUNTAINEERS
After a rough patch that saw App State drop six of eight games, the Mountaineer staff made some hitting order adjustments and the results were immediate. Since those lineup revisions took hold App State is averaging 14 runs per game and .370 at the plate.
The Mountaineers are the one team that boasts the same kind of offensive production as Georgia State. In fact, App State is the only Sun Belt team to scores more runs than the Panthers in conference games.
The top of that revised hitting order is pushing .450 at the plate since the changes were introduced. The newly stacked lineup has produced well collectively but the reintroduction of a healthy Xavier Moronta has brought a welcomed charge. Moronta has averaged .474 and driven in 12 runs over the past four games.
That lineup has also delivered clutch production. App State is hitting .361 over the past four games with runners in scoring position (RISP), but even more impressive is that the Mountaineers are averaging 18 at bats per game with RISP over that span.
Of course, just as important, especially when playing heavy-hitting Georgia State, is pitching and defensive execution. The Mountaineers continue to allow some big innings which has required the kind of offensive production App State has been delivering.
This is a weekend where Mountaineer arms, especially out of the bullpen, can deliver the kind of complementary productivity that it takes to win a road series in this league. The Panthers haven't lost a Sun Belt series at home this season, going 6-3 in the process.
GAME BREAKDOWN
The Sun Belt standings are incredibly competitive throughout the guts of the league, which means that every team in that group, which includes both App State and Georgia State, need to win these weekend series.
Last weekend was App State's first road series win in conference this season and that's an important trend to continue. The Mountaineers are facing teams directly above and below them in the standings the rest of the way, so they control their upcoming destiny.
These are two explosive offensive teams but the pitching staff which limits opportunities most often will likely tip the final outcome.
