The Atlanta Braves ran out a number of interesting pitching prospects on the system yesterday, especially at the lower levels, but it was unfortunately not the best of days as some bad luck crippled Augusta’s two top guns. Still there were some standouts, including 2023 6th rounder Lucas Braun and reliever Hayden Harris.
(23-27) Gwinnett Stripers 2, (22-28) Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp 10
- Forrest Wall, LF: 1-4, 3B .308/.422/.495
- Andrew Velazquez, RF: 1-3, HR, .197/.270/.350
- Bryce Elder, SP: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 7 BB, 5 K, 5.23 ERA
- Daysbel Hernandez, RP: 1.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 2.55 ERA
We are going to start our day with a poorly-pitched blowout and friends, unfortunately this is far from the last of its kind from Saturday evening. I’m far from a Bryce Elder hater, I’ve been on board with him as a solid starter since he was in Rome, but boy did this performance have me rethinking all sorts of evaluations. Elder was just bad. If he wasn’t missing the zone he was keeping the ball too much in the heart of the plate and he simply did not have it. He wasn’t missing bats and he walked seven batters, and even though the contact against him was largely insignificant when the Jumbo Shrimp got him they really got him. Elder allowed two home runs in this start and let’s all just move on and pretend it never happened.
The offense also took a night off, though with the fewest runs scored in the league they’ve had quite a lot of those, and it was an absolute drubbing until Andrew Velazquez snuck an eighth inning home run just past the right field wall to avoid a shutout. The Stripers hit three balls in this game 100+ mph, all just barely clearing the mark, and managed to make four outs on those batted balls. It was just a tough day for the Triple-A club and we didn’t even get to see Sean Murphy play as he sat after playing back-to-back days on Thursday and Friday. Daysbel Hernandez got roughed up in relief, allowing two runs in the eighth inning before being pulled from the game. He also had a comeback glance off of his throwing arm (Elbow? Hand? That Gwinnett center field camera is terrible at handling evening sunsets) though he did ultimately stay in the game. His fastball velocity didn’t suffer after this point either, so it seems like he was okay. This ended a long streak for Hernandez, who had not allowed an earned run since April 13th.
(21-23) Mississippi Braves 11, (12-32) Chattanooga Lookouts 7
- Nacho Alvarez, SS: 2-4, BB, .279/.387/.333
- Drake Baldwin, DH: 2-4, BB, .255/.325/.352
- Keshawn Ogans, 3B: 1-5, 2B, 3 RBI, .216/.269/.272
- Drew Parrish, SP: 5 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 4.11 ERA
- Hayden Harris, RP: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 0.59 ERA
- Rolddy Munoz, RP: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 3.86 ERA
Mississippi came into this game having scored a league-low 11 runs in the first inning of games, a testament to the struggles of the guys at the top of the lineup who were supposed to be the team’s leaders. However on Saturday it all came together for them, and the M-Braves put up a six spot on the Lookouts then held on for dear life to take their sixth straight win. It’s important to reiterate just how good Drake Baldwin has been in the month of May, as he ran his on base streak to seven games and has a wRC+ of 116 this month. Largely Baldwin still feasts on fastballs, with breaking balls being a point of weakness for him overall, but after an April in which he seemed to be in between pitches with his selection he has really done better this month of attacking fastballs. With that he has also been able to avoid the chases he had earlier this season on breaking pitches and as a result he is really hitting the ball at a high rate. Then there is Nacho Alvarez who has been really the most difficult player to evaluate in the system this year. He’s exactly what he was advertised as, he’s still making contact at a high rate and showing off impressive pitch and zone recognition skills, but there just has been no progress made in hitting the ball with authority more frequently. He has hit for a bit more power in May, but a .078 ISO would still be in the bottom third of the league. Still he’s been a 123 wRC+ player in an extremely pitcher-friendly park, and his line drive rates, contact rates, and chase rates are all positive indicators especially with his defense at shortstop seeming to smooth out just a little bit. I’m less split on his ability to stick there, though I’m not sure the footspeed is enough to make him an above average glove there his arm, hands, and first step are all so good that I’m getting ready to throw a 50 on his glove which would make for an easier time projecting him to an everyday role even without power.
While the offense did give Drew Parrish a big cushion it was a slow burn for him to give those runs all back to the Lookouts, though ultimately Mississippi did come through and give him a run in the sixth inning so he could “earn” a win. Parrish is just organization filler, though he has had a solid season at producing ground balls and relying on a pretty solid defense behind him with Ogans at third and Cal Conley a guy whose progress with the glove at second base since joining the system has significantly increased my confidence in him. The pitchers that do matter are the relievers in Rolddy Munoz and Hayden Harris, and they had quite different results on Saturday. Munoz struggled, striking out only one of the seven batters he faced. Munoz has been fantastic this season so it’s no reason for concern, but he is still a work in progress on his command and days like yesterday show his flaws. Hayden Harris had no trouble at all, needing 16 pitches to strike out all three of the batters he faced. With that Harris’s strikeout rate jumped to 43.5%, slightly leapfrogging Munoz for the system lead in strikeout rate. Harris has made a lot of progress with his command, and while he is still working through some pitch mix and approach stuff it’s close to time for him to get a call up to Gwinnett. His 2.61 FIP since the start of 2023 leads all minor league pitchers with 70 or more innings.
(22-20) Rome Emperors 2, (21-21) Wilmington Blue Rocks 0
- Kevin Kilpatrick Jr, CF: 0-4, .286/.342/.411
- Sabin Ceballos, 3B: 0-3, BB, .269/.377/.338
- Lucas Braun, SP: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 4.95 ERA
- Samuel Strickland, RP: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1.16 ERA
If you’re a fan of good pitching here you go, you finally got your wish as it was another huge afternoon for Lucas Braun. Braun is another one of those guys that I consider to be closing in on promotion-worthiness, as over the past few weeks he has ironed out some earlier issues and is really too good for High-A hitters when he is on his game. His pitch mix is so deep and he’s able to command all four, and that against A-level hitters is enough to make you a top tier starter. His numbers overall aren’t fantastic, but he’s really just held back by a couple of games in which his command was uncharacteristically poor and when he has found the edges of the zone he’s been a shutdown guy for the Emperors. An uptick in stuff for Braun could turn him into an easy top 10 prospect in this system, but I think overall where he is now he is showing the signs of a solid back end starter who could join that Triple-A group of guys who the Braves rotate through during a season. His raw pitch mix isn’t going to be enough to miss bats at a high level once he reaches Double-A and beyond, but his ability to command his pitches makes him a reliable piece that was well worth a sixth round pick last year. On Saturday his command was on point, and the Wilmington offense that already isn’t particularly good by High-A standards really just had no hope. He was better than them and it was apparent all throughout the game.
Rome has fallen off of a cliff offensively over the past week, as they haven’t had any consistent contributors stepping up to produce for them. The Emperors managed only three hits in the game, but managed to make the most of Wilmington mistakes and turn two of those into RBIs. Overall Rome really lacks any hitter on this team with the consistent ability to make impact contact (outside of EJ Exposito’s hot streak), and that’s been pretty disappointing when you look at Sabin Ceballos sitting in the two spot in the order. Ceballos went hitless in this game, but he did draw a walk to extend an 18 game on base streak that he has built quietly. Ceballos has a 145 wRC+ in that span, and has struck out only 18.7% of the time which is a mark that rebukes the concerns over his hit tool coming out of Oregon. Unfortunately the sacrifice for that hitting has been any sort of power production whatsoever, and it’s not just a matter of launch angle though his 45% ground ball rate isn’t helping. Ceballos just isn’t hitting the ball all that hard, and for a guy who is a corner infielder there really isn’t any amount of hitting for contact that is going to make up for a sub-.100 isolated power. Ceballos has a steep swing path and struggles to control the barrel of the bat, so I’m not even particularly confident he is going to maintain his current contact rates, and with that combining with the inability to find the barrel when he does make contact he’s increasingly becoming a concerning prospect.
(18-24) Augusta GreenJackets 2, (24-18) Kannapolis Cannon Ballers 17
- Diego Benitez, SS: 1-3, 3 errors, .137/.231/.214
- Robert Gonzalez, CF: 0-2, BB, .200/.266/.280
- Adam Maier: SP: 1 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 3.86 ERA
(18-25) Augusta GreenJackets 0, (25-18) Kannapolis Cannon Ballers 6
- Isaiah Drake, CF: 0-3, .119/.209/.169
- Robert Gonzalez, LF: 0-2, BB, .200/.266/.280
- Garrett Baumann: SP: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 2.03 ERA
- Adam Shoemaker, RP, 3.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 6.04 ERA
You never want your starting pitching to fail to make it past the first inning in a double header. You really, really never want it to happen in both games. Augusta should have felt confident running out Adam Maier and Garrett Baumann as they have been the two best starters on the team. However both cleared the 30 pitch mark in their first innings, and with the Braves using that as a hard cap for pitches in an inning for prospects neither were able to complete an inning of work. It looked a bit different for each guy. Adam Maier should never have come even close to 30 pitches that inning, but the failure of luck and his defense was an absolute travesty against the spot. Maier gave up six hits and maybe on of them was a medium hit line drive, the other five along with an error by Diego Benitez were the softest hit line drives that either found the tiniest gaps in the defense or in one case Leiker Figueroa soft tossing a ball to first base that the runner beat out. It was horrible and probably the best-pitched six run inning I’ve ever seen. I genuinely feel bad for Maier because he did everything he could have in producing soft contact and nothing went right for him once the ball left the bat.
Then of course, the offense for the GreenJackets didn’t show up to either game, and back to Diego Benitez that was one of his three errors in game one. Benitez now has 18 errors this season and it’s only May, and even more incredibly that’s also the same amount of hits he has this season. Even with all of the bad luck if Benitez doesn’t sail his throw wide Maier gets out of the inning at 28 pitches and maybe sticks around a few more to right the wrongs of that first inning, but alas that did not happen. The position players ended up being better as pitchers in this game, as Joe Olsavsky and Pier-Olivier Boucher combined for two runs over 3 2⁄3 innings while the actual pitchers allowed 15 runs (nine earned) over 3 1⁄3 innings. If you want to take away anything I guess Robert Gonzalez drew walks in each game and now has done so in three straight games.
Baumann on the other hand really didn’t have a terrible inning either, but he had a couple of deep counts that he wasn’t able to finish off and ran up pitches after just six batters. Baumann’s command wasn’t quite as tight as it has been in past games, so overall with misses both out of the zone and in the zone he gave up a run but it felt like it was just a regular rough inning rather than him having a blow up type outing. Unfortunately pitch counts are pitch counts and the GreenJackets fortunately had Adam Shoemaker available to cover innings. Shoemaker had showed some signs of progress with his command earlier this season and I felt a bit more confident in him as a prospect, but as he’s been stretched out that’s dissipated and it’s likely he’ll ultimately just end up a reliever if he can’t hold command deep into games. If he can add some velocity in that role I think that combined with his slider can make him an effective reliever though he would still need to make progress with his command.
(4-12) FCL Braves 2, (9-6) FCL Rays 10
- John Gil, DH: 1-3, 2B, BB, .237/.338/.305
- Mario Baez, SS: 1-3, 2B, BB, RBI, .280/.345/.360
- Whilmer Guerra, SP: 3 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 8.64 ERA
My run of good fortune with FCL games has come to an end and the Complex level Braves got trounced Saturday afternoon. Cam Magee led off this game in a rehab stint and drew a hit and a walk, but it’s not really his bat I’m looking forward to back in Augusta. At this point anyone who can field a ground ball and throw it to first will be a welcome sight for the GreenJackets, and Magee will provide some reliability to the worst defense in full season ball. As for the prospects on this team Mario Baez drew a hit and a walk, and now has four straight games in which he has reached base two or more times. In addition that’s two doubles in his past three games, a positive sign for a guy who coming into this week had had some offensive struggles. Similarly John Gil had a hit and a walk and has likewise reached base multiple times in each of the last four games. He ups the ante though, with four doubles in his past four games after what was a dreadful start to the season. Gil was one of the players we were told to keep a close eye on, and so far it seems he has met expectations even with the poor start to the year that has permeated this entire team.
